According to the forecasts of international auditing company PricewaterhouseCoopers, Russian market of passenger cars is going to fall down up to 25-35% in 2015. From the data of the optimistic forecast, 1 million 750 thousand of passenger cars will be sold this year (-25%), base scenario contemplates the drop in sales up to 35% that is 1 million 520 thousand cars. But for all that, imported foreign cars will demonstrate the greatest fall at the end of 2015 – 48-55%. Sales of foreign cars of Russian production will fall down up to 23-33%.
Car sales of domestic brands may fall down up to 10% or even show 5% growth.Experts say that the rise in car prices, stated in 2014, will last through 2015, which will have a negative impact on the market behavior. The expected drop in sales may lead to the withdrawal of some brands from the Russian market. Car producers with rather small sales volume in Russia are in the risk zone above all. In this situation, car-producers having high production localization level in Russia are in the advantage position, and first of all Russian car-producers. Taking into consideration the volatility of Russian currency, domestic producers got an extra incentive to locate their manufactures, but their decision will depend significantly on the market volume. In these circumstances, in 2015 the market can be re-divided in favor of Russian brands and those having balanced and consistent business-development strategy in Russia.
Experts consider that the recovery of the up to the level of 2012 is possible in a five-year period. Thus, according to the positive forecast PwC, the Russian market must overcome 2.8 million level in the sales of passenger cars, in 2019, in compliance with the base scenario – in 2020. By 2025 the rate of cars sales in our country can reach 3.1-3.4 million. At that, the motorization rate will raise up to 350-400 vehicles/1000 citizens in 10 years.
